Nickel & stainless steel weekly report: terminal demand is suppressed, stainless steel peaks and falls
On the macro level, the Fed’s taper has not yet been announced, and the risk of the US debt ceiling problem still exists; domestic energy consumption double control continues to increase, and the impact of power restrictions and production restrictions has expanded.
In terms of industry, nickel ore prices continue to be strong, nickel inventories continue to fall, and the pattern of upstream supply continues to be tight; the price of ferronickel has risen slightly, short-term supply and demand are weak; some stainless steel plants resume production, the previous period electricity policy gradually expires, and supply concerns have weakened. However, terminal demand has been suppressed, and market concerns have gradually turned.
Generally speaking, the dual control of energy consumption is difficult to change, and subsequent stainless steel is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes; Shanghai nickel bears gradually digested, the tight supply pattern continues, and there is still support underneath. The reference range of Shanghai Nickel 2111 contract is 142000-148000 yuan/ton, and the reference range of SS2111 contract is 19500-20500 yuan/ton.
In operation, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are doing more on dips.
Uncertainty risks: development of the epidemic, overseas economic stimulus policies, lower-than-expected demand for new energy, changes in the utilization of stainless steel production capacity